Domestic natural gas is expected to maintain relatively rapid growth.

At the recently held 2025 International Energy Development Summit, the “Report on China’s Oil and Gas Industry Development Achievements during the 14th Five-Year Plan Period” (hereinafter referred to as the “Report”) was released. The Report shows that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China’s cumulative newly proven geological reserves reached 7 billion tons of oil and 7 trillion cubic meters of natural gas, representing increases of approximately 43% and 40%, respectively, compared to the 13th Five-Year Plan period. Oil and gas production hit record highs.

Currently, the global energy landscape is undergoing a profound restructuring. As a low-carbon and highly efficient clean energy source, natural gas is not only a key driver of economic and social development but also an important pillar for advancing the energy transition and accelerating the establishment of a new energy system.

Wu Mouyuan, deputy director of the Economic and Technical Research Institute of China National Petroleum Corporation, stated that oil production is expected to reach between 215 million and 216 million tons this year. Natural gas is set for substantial growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with annual new natural gas production increasing by around 13 billion cubic meters. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, natural gas production is projected to continue its steady and robust development.

Duan Zhaofang, Director of the Natural Gas Market Research Institute at the Economic and Technical Research Institute of China National Petroleum Corporation, stated that since 2000, China’s natural gas market has entered a phase of rapid development, with annual average growth in natural gas consumption reaching around 13%. Natural gas now accounts for approximately 9% of primary energy consumption. Looking at the new characteristics and changes in this year’s natural gas market, China’s natural gas consumption has entered a brief adjustment period, but is expected to resume relatively rapid growth next year. At the same time, domestically produced gas will play an increasingly prominent role. The state continues to vigorously promote exploration and development, and it is projected that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, domestically produced gas will maintain relatively fast growth. Tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane will be the main sources of future incremental supply.

Meanwhile, the forum released the “2060 World and China Energy Outlook Report (2025 Edition),” which projects that, under the baseline scenario and driven by economic development and industrial upgrading, China’s primary energy demand will peak at 5 billion tons of oil equivalent (approximately 7.1 billion tons of coal equivalent) by 2035—a rise of about 20% compared to 2025. By 2060, China’s energy demand is expected to remain above 4.5 billion tons of oil equivalent (approximately 6.4 billion tons of coal equivalent).

Oil demand is accelerating its shift toward the chemical and new materials manufacturing sectors. By 2050, oil consumption for chemical applications will peak at 290 million tons, accounting for more than 50% of total oil demand. Natural gas will play a critical role in supporting the new power system; it is expected to enter a peak plateau between 2035 and 2040, with demand ranging from 620 billion to 650 billion cubic meters.

Daniel Yergin, Vice Chairman of S&P Global, stated that oil and gas will continue to play a vital role over the long term. Amidst the energy transition, global energy demand continues to rise, and the growing demand for electricity driven by artificial intelligence will accelerate the rapid development of natural gas power generation and nuclear power. The energy transition is shifting from being energy-intensive to mineral-intensive, yet it also faces challenges such as lengthy development cycles for critical minerals and complex political factors.

“Over the next five years, fossil fuels and renewable energy will be integrated and developed in a synergistic manner, enabling the entire energy system to achieve healthy, stable, and highly resilient growth. Clean energy will continue to maintain a rapid growth trajectory. More than 90% of renewable energy will need to be absorbed through electricity, and the electrification of end-use energy consumption represents an important direction for future transformation,” said Wu Mouyuan.

According to forecasts, over the next 10 years, China’s energy structure will show a trend of “reduced coal use, stable oil and gas consumption, and growing non-fossil fuel sources,” gradually forming a “three-legged stool” pattern by 2035. By 2060, the shares of fossil fuels, hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, and solar power in China’s energy mix will be 23%, 19%, 25%, and 30%, respectively. (Reporter: Qi Hui)

Source: Economic Daily